Ecofys prognosticates surplus of emission rights in the second phase of the European Union emission trade

(openPR) - 28.11.2006 - by the risk of a surplus of emission certificates in the European emission trade system (EU-ETS) the goal could be missed of reducing the greenhouse gas missions of the European industry. To this result Ecofys comes in an investigation of the allocation schemes for emission certificates for the period 2008 to 2012. In this case reaching the Kyoto goals would have to take place via the small industry, households and the transportation sector or via the increased purchase from emission certificates from developing countries.

The Ecofys analysis evaluates the drafts of the national Allokationspläne (NAPs) for the second commercial phase of the EU-ETS from 2008 to 2012. In the focus of the study the progress of the member states is located to emissions regarding the reaching of the Kyoto goals and their suggestions for upper limits of the emission rights compared to Business as Usual (BUILDING). The NAP drafts require still the agreement of the European commission. First decisions are expected in addition in the next days.

A surplus of certificates threatens the market
Independent computations of Ecofys point to the second European Union-ETS-Handelsperiode per year a surplus of 2,5 per cent (50 million tons of CO2). This contradicts the official emission prognoses of the member states, which proceed from an annual shortage of seven per cent of the entire eating ions (150 million tons of CO2). The explanation for it lies in the too high prognoses of the building emissions of some European states. Monique Voogt, chief of the range energy & climatic strategies with Ecofys, in addition: „If the European commission the suggestions of the member states follows, expects we no shortage of the emission authorizations on the market within the second commercial period. The market would have rather too many as over too few certificates, above all also by the additional offer of project-based emission certificates by the Clean development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint implementation (JI). The market will function only correctly, if the total quantity of the spent certificates is scarce enough, so that a clear price signal develops and emissions in the European Union are reduced. “

Partly superelevated emission prognoses
The country-specific analysis of Ecofys is based on the NAP drafts of 18 that altogether 25 European Union member states, as well as on those from Romania and Bulgaria. It represents thereby 97 per cent of the European Union-ETS-emissions in these 27 countries. Thereby the large differences between official national emission prognoses and the computations of Ecofys, which are based on energy scenarios of the European union, are above all surprising. In nine of 20 examined states the national emission prognoses over ten per cent are higher than those the Ecofys analysis.

Non-uniform contributions for the reaching of the Kyoto goals
In accordance with the present Allokationsplänen of nine member states the European industrial enterprises participating in the emission trade would not contribute sufficient to the reaching of the Kyoto targets. These goals would have then by other market sectors (households, small industry, transport) or by the purchase by project-based emission certificates (JI/CDM) to be fulfilled. However only one of these nine member states took the purchase into account of a sufficient quantity of project-based emission certificates, if one assumes these are to benefit the different sectors of the economy equally.

Note for editorships:
A summary of the study can be downloaded on the German as well as English Unternehmenswebsite within the range “publications” (www.ecofys.de).

EU-ETS
The European Union emission trade system is a ratio system with tradable certificates, which sets a bordering regarding carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) of power stations and heavy industries of the EU25-Staaten. A goal of the system is it to set incentives for emission reduction in the sectors with the lowest avoidance costs and at the same time to make the trade possible of emission rights between enterprises. If participants higher emissions have than them emission rights are assigned, then they can select whether they reduce emissions or buys additional emission rights of enterprises, which have a surplus. The first phase of the EU-ETS, on 1 January 2005 into force stepped, ends on 31 December 2007. It merges over 11.000 enterprises, which are responsible for approximately half of all CO2-Emissionen in the European Union. The phase 2 of the commercial system begins on 1 January 2008 and runs over five years to at the end of 2012.

NAP
Also each European Union member state must compile a national Allokationsplan (NAP) for the own country, which contains details for the dispatching of the emission rights to the users of the system, and on it is received in what respect this agrees with the obligations of the member states under Kyoto minutes. The phase II NAPs should be submitted the European commission by 30 June 2006 for agreement. So far not all NAPs were submitted formally and many NAPs are so far only in the Orginal language available.

JI/CDM
Member states can permit the emission action express takers to partly reach their European Union-ETS-goals by project-based emission certificates. This can either by projects in the context of Joint implementation (JI) or Clean development Mechanism (CDM) happen, the flexible mechanisms in such a way specified of Kyoto minutes. By the purchase of project-based emission certificates emission action express takers support the development of projects, the carbon dioxide emissions elsewhere reduce instead of the own emissions locally to reduce. One of the main drives for the use of the project-based certificates participates that the costs of these certificates (per ton of CO2) are smaller than the costs of the certificates on the European Union market.

For further information to Ecofys international contact you please:
Dr. Linda van Maaren
PR manager
T: + 31 (0) 30 - 280 8390
E: l.vanmaaren@econcern.com

For further information to Ecofys in Germany you contact please:
Christina franc, M.A.
Communication & marketing Ecofys Germany
T: + 49 (0) 221 - 510,907,-80
E: c.frank@ecofys.de

For further information to Ecofys international contact you please:
Dr. Linda van Maaren
PR manager
T: + 31 (0) 30 - 280 8390
E: l.vanmaaren@econcern.com

For further information to Ecofys in Germany you contact please:
Christina franc, M.A.
Communication & marketing Ecofys Germany
T: + 49 (0) 221 - 510,907,-80
E: c.frank@ecofys.de

Ecofys international (www.ecofys.com)
Ecofys is a prominent consulting firm in the ranges of the renewable energies, energy efficiency and climatic protection. Its over 250 experts in eleven countries develop lasting and innovative energy solutions and - concepts for enterprises and institutions. Ecofys belongs to the Econcern group, one of 500 at the strongest increasing enterprise in Europe and pursues the goal of a lasting power supply for all.

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